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What the interest graph has in common with fire, cellphones and microwaves

It's hard to over hype the significance of the interest graph, once you really understand its magnitude.  On the flipside, it can be confusing to hear people talk about the interest graph without knowing what all the fuss is about.  (As background to this blog post, you can learn about the origins of the interest graph in this slideshare document and this Quora Q&A post).

I'm going to lay out an argument for the interest graph and its significance on the very fabric of our lives.  And make no mistake -- I am indeed saying that the interest graph is a really, really big deal -- one that sits right beside other life-changing inventions and discoveries such as fire, language, the printing press, human powered flight, antibiotics,  cellphones, and of course, microwaves.

Let's start by really defining what I mean by 'interests' and how they apply here.

Mega Trends, Social TV, Liberating Data & More at the Mobile Outlook 2013 + ApolloMatrix Happy Hour

Paul Sherman, the editor of Pototmac Tech Wire, puts on an awesome Mobile Outlook panel every year.  I participated in 2010 and 2011 and again this year at USA Today's Gannett HQ in McLean, VA.  It's funny to go back and watch the older panels when we asked for a show of hands -- back then, everyone was using Blackberry phones and only a few early adopters had Android phones.  Oh, how quickly things change -- at this year's panel the ratio was reversed.  And interestingly, nobody was using a WindowsPhone device.

As I get into angel investing, I'm creating a framework with which to evaluate potential opportunities, which I presented as a keynote at the event.  My main message:  Find the good ideas that are masquerading as bad ideas -- therein lie the billion dollar exits.  This is a tip I picked up from Paul Graham's excellent Black Swan Farming essay.  Here's a Venn diagram of what these "good ideas in hiding" look like:

This is super counter-intuitive, because we all tend to look for the good ideas, both as entrepreneurs and as investors.  In the slides below, you'll see that the framework I'm developing focuses on teams that can prototype & iterate quickly, are doing something in a meaningfully large market, and can "dump the poop," or pivot quickly when it turns out that a bad idea is actually just that:  A bad idea, and not a good idea in hiding.