DROdio

A Sanctuary for Founders and Entrepreneurs

hide

Read Next

Anticipating The Future When It's On An Exponential Curve

My startup, Socialize, is a part of a great media accelerator sponsored by Turner Broadcasting called MediaCamp.

Turner has created MediaCamp specifically because it believes that it needs to be proactive in thinking about what disruptive technologies could affect its legacy line of businesses, and how to take advantage of them vs. having them disrupt its business.  It's definitely forward thinking of Turner to dedicate the resources necessary to fund an accelerator program, especially when its parent company, TimeWarner, made $29 billion in revenue and almost $3 billion in net income last year.

In fact, media companies face the classic Innovator's Dilemma: It's hard (impossible?) to dedicate meaningful resources and focus to technologies that aren't generating billions of dollars in revenue and income when the current business is a cash cow.  Obviously, startups don't have this problem.

We've been having a spirited debate about the Innovator's Dilemma at Media Camp, and how Turner has been addressing it.  But here's the thing I can't quite rationalize and understand:  What's a meaningful disruption timeframe for a media company to plan around?  And specifically, how does any company predict that timeframe to take meaningful action on it when they don't know what disruptive adoption curves might look like?

The reason I'm asking this question is because of graphs like this, of world population growth, that looked to be linear for a long time but were actually more than exponential:

Mega Trends, Social TV, Liberating Data & More at the Mobile Outlook 2013 + ApolloMatrix Happy Hour

Paul Sherman, the editor of Pototmac Tech Wire, puts on an awesome Mobile Outlook panel every year.  I participated in 2010 and 2011 and again this year at USA Today's Gannett HQ in McLean, VA.  It's funny to go back and watch the older panels when we asked for a show of hands -- back then, everyone was using Blackberry phones and only a few early adopters had Android phones.  Oh, how quickly things change -- at this year's panel the ratio was reversed.  And interestingly, nobody was using a WindowsPhone device.

As I get into angel investing, I'm creating a framework with which to evaluate potential opportunities, which I presented as a keynote at the event.  My main message:  Find the good ideas that are masquerading as bad ideas -- therein lie the billion dollar exits.  This is a tip I picked up from Paul Graham's excellent Black Swan Farming essay.  Here's a Venn diagram of what these "good ideas in hiding" look like:

This is super counter-intuitive, because we all tend to look for the good ideas, both as entrepreneurs and as investors.  In the slides below, you'll see that the framework I'm developing focuses on teams that can prototype & iterate quickly, are doing something in a meaningfully large market, and can "dump the poop," or pivot quickly when it turns out that a bad idea is actually just that:  A bad idea, and not a good idea in hiding.

Guest hasn't filled out their bio yet.
Guest
0
Vote
Advanced options  
, at :
Close